I wasnt there and hence I cant say from experience. But data and current conditions suggets that No but we are in for tough times. A little commented on note is the impact of the financial crisis on the real economy. Where is the real economy right now? What is happening to real demand and real supply? The truth of the matter is that real demand is slowing down. Retail sales are slowing down. Housing investmenst are slowing. Demand for IT investments from the financial sector has been dramatically cut. VC funding is going to slow down. We can expect actual demand to be far lesser than potential demand. And actual supply will follow suit. The economy is likely to contract for the next 15 months.
Why will this be not like the great depression?
a) The economy is far more diverse than it was in 1929 – hence sources of demand are not concentrated in manufacturing
b) The Fed and the Treasury are moving very rapidly to shore up the financial system – liquidity continues to be available albeit in smaller quantity. The recapitalization of banks is going to help alleviate the liquidity problem.
c) The Chinese continue to buy US Treasury bills
d) A large portion of US corporate income comes from overseas – hence the ability of US Corporates to carry out investments, while diminished, has not been entirely stopped
e) The housing market was artificially inflated – this brings houses to their true value (whatever that may be!) and hence more people will be able to afford houses in the medium run future
However there is more that needs to be done. This is the time for some Keynesian economics - the government will need to increase public spending on items such as infrastructure to motivate more investment and create jobs. Richer people will need to pay higher taxes. And the government cant afford to wage another war.
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Sean Astin (Samwise Gamgee) 's book "There and Back Again" is an interesting read. I just read it today very quickly. Its a very refreshingly honest book and gives an interesting insider view on how the LOR trilogy was made. The book rambles on a bit with some general philosophical streams of consciousness. But some of the vignettes are poignant and interesting at times. People will either like it or will probaly feel sorry for Astin.
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