Monday, December 14, 2009
Paul Samuelson
Thank you Prof Samuelson. RIP
Google and Apple wars - way too cool for the consumer;
We will see - but all in the beauty of competition is being brought out here. And we can expect Microsoft to follow suit also. I'm sure they are not going to miss out on the mobility hardware software combination space for too long.
Saturday, December 12, 2009
What Obama is not doing
Witness his response to the economic crisis or the manner in which he has led the reform on healthcare or the strategy on the two wars. All of them marked by a careful consideration of the options and the implications of each. None of the analysis lacked data or a theory of the case. And in particular with the economy, he has taken the right strategy - use Keynes to drive the economy out of trouble, fix some underlying problems and be friendly to the Chinese.
But he's missing out on a crucial element that is expected of him - that of being the Optimist in Chief!! He is a bit too serious and a bit too stern in his manner. As the President in today's times he has a duty to not only use his smarts - but also to be cheerful and radiate optimism - and not to wag a finger every time he gives a speech!! and that's where I fear he is failing!
I think he has forgotten that the American economy is built on expectations - and the hope that things wil be better in the future. When Obama speaks of the future - he speaks with a tone that suggests some admonishment - but then there is no followup with a cheery optimism - that is so essential to raising people's confidence. If only he did that - then consumers would start spending and banks would give start goving credit and the cycle would start slowly but surely. Mr President we like you - but we need more optimism from you. the people need it and deserve it.
Monday, December 7, 2009
Greed - the problem with Corporate America
This the problem with Corporate America and our lifestyle today - we are greedy people - who will cry and beg for help when we are down, but the minute we are up, we forget what brought us down and go back to our old ways of thinking and working. It is AIG and other financial insititutions who have made the hard earned savings of ordinary Americans disappear in thin smoke through their excessive risk taking, which in turn was driven by misaligned and often excessive incentives. Greed.
What else can explain this behaviour? Cant executives at AIG, deal with a pay cut for a couple of years while they get their house in order? I am not talking of an ordinary manager making less than $100k a year - I am talking about executives who make $500k a year and more. I dont think anybody on this planet needs more than 500k a year to have a reasonable, and healthy lifestyle! The only reason this happens is because of Greed! Nothing else can explain it.
And herein lies one of the biggest dangers of our society - we have over time, focused so much on individual happiness that we have forgotten about societal good. We are no longer interested in making the types of sacrifices our forefathers made to make this nation strong. We run the risk of being weak if all we ever focus on is individual happiness. I am a firm believer in capitalism, in markets and free entreprise. But the modern day guardians of capitalism (CNBC and the likes) have taken this to such an extreme that they do not realise the dangers of capitalism - greed driving excesses that can eat away our society.
And this is the difference now between Asia and America - no CEO in China or Singapore would dare say that they wouldnt do a job when their national pride was at stake - (which in this case is Americas), just because they were being only 500k a year!!! No - such CEOs and executives would be quickly shown the door.
And it is more than America's pride that is at stake - we do have to prove that we can recover and that our country is the center of innovation in this world, where dreams are realized and where people enjoy personal freedom. At the same time India and China are catching up on the innovation race. Their capital markets are developing agressively. Already there is an ever so slight shift in the balance of power from the west to the east. If we are not humble and driven by the desire to re-build the nation, we will become like the old powers of the middle ages - like Portugal, Spain, Italy and Britain, who are no longer as relevant as they used to be.
Thursday, August 6, 2009
High Commitment, High Performance
This book is remarkable because Mike does a great job of combining research, theory and practice. For those of you who dont know, Mike is a Professor Emeritus at Harvard Business School and the Chairman of TruePoint - a consulting outfit that he started. Mike is an atypical academic in that he actually started his career in a manufacturing company after his PhD and then moved to academe. So he actually developed his theory of the case partly in the really world.
Which is why his book is different. In this book, he describes what a true High Commitment High Performance company is - They are aligned on three outcomes - Performance Alignment, Learning and Change Capability and Psychological Alignment. In addition they have leaders who are values driven and think beyond profits - they believe that their companies have a deeper reason to exist and take a multistakeholder perspective.
Mike also does a nice job of talking about thewhat he calls the silent killers of strategy and the five levers of change. Finally Mike shows how to build a High Performance, High Commitment company.
Here's the link to the book. - read it. http://www.hchp.truepoint.com/
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
India and China are still behind
But what this really indicates is that India and China to a lesser extent are less connected internationally and far less developed than their western counterparts. They dont have the same e degree of sophistication that the international economies have. They also wont benefit to the same degree by an expansion in the US market.
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
The economy is hitting the ordinary people - is the stimulus working?
Because Airtraffic is down, less number of people are flying - the are car pooling - they are taking public transport. In fact, the long term parking in SFO is less crowded than it used to be earlier.
The cabbie who picked me up in Boston had a smilar story - lesser number of people flying now. His income was down by 20-30%. none of these are accurate numbers, but they give a sense of the scale of the downturn. we need to continue to wear seat belts tight.
Does this the mean the stimulus is not working? I think its too early to teel. even though jobless rates in May were higher than expected, the trickle down effect of a stimulus plan takes time. Let's see how the story is in August. My sense is an additional stimulus will be needed.
Tuesday, July 7, 2009
Shareholder Value - is that what companies exist for?
I wonder why most CEOs and managers keep forgetting that a company exists for reasons beyond making a profit. and why the still worry about earnings calls. and why they worry about analysts. and why they worry only about quarterly reports only. The most successful ones are the those who dont fall in this trap.
Monday, June 29, 2009
Merger of equals - Is that so?
Thursday, June 11, 2009
Acqusitions by Indian companies - part 2
If Indian companies cant figure out how value is being created for the new company and put specific processes in place to drive the value creation opportunities, they should avoid acquisitions.
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Not just the Aussies, but Indians are also Racists - so let's get some perspective.
In Mumbai, many local Marathis look down on outsiders and often treat them with scorn. People from the south and migrant workers are beaten up by goons from chauvinistic political parties. In Delhi, Calcutta and other parts, the story is not dissimilar. Malayalees refer to Tamils as Pattars, Bengalis are Bongs and Marwaris are "kanjus marwadi". Gujaratis are money minded Gujjus and Sikhs are dumbwitted "surds" (and in my opinion, they are the only race capable of laughing at themselves).
Physical attacks on people of different races are not uncommon in India. And they are often perpetrated by well heeled folks who use goons. And where were all the Indians when an Aussie missionary, Graham Staines and his two innocent kids were burnt alive when sleeping inside their van in Orissa? That was a crime so heinous that it still makes me shudder. Not a single Indian Film actor raised his voice in protest then. Why does Mr Bachchan make a show now?
I am an Indian, brown in color, and proud to be so. But how does it matter? Most Indians dont understand that skin color doesnt matter. What else would explain the burning desire among Indian women to want to be fair complexioned, for Indian parents to have fair skinned daughters and sons, and Indian men to want to marry only fair skinned women? Check any matrimonial ad - "Sought handsome well qualified groom for fair complexioned beautiful (but uneducated) girl, can cook, sing and sew etc" - Or as they say in tamil, "Aval, colorrara irukka" or "avallukku color kuncham koruchalla irukku".
Now I am taking some liberties here - but hopefully people will understand that i mean women no disrespect, but there is a whole Industry thriving in India built around the promise of making brown people like me look white! And we say others are racist! Racism, whether by Aussies or by Indians is wrong!
Monday, June 8, 2009
Taxing global income - not a good idea wholly
Why I was right about the acquisitions by Indian companies - I didnt like them.
Sure it is good to see Indian companies coming out of their own mental and capital constraints and venture boldly around the world. It is heartwarming to see the can do spirit - time for the emerging market economies to take on the world. But I wasnt a big fan of some specific deals then and for sure I now feel vindicated.
Because in their euphoria and desire to do the deal - they ended up overpaying and taking on a pile of debt, compounding the problem with an integration strategy that beats all known logic. There is always a business and value logic to doing M&A - in the case of the Jaguar deal, the Tata group threw all value logic out of the window - why else would they buy something which nobody else would touch with a barnpole! and pay so much for it! There was no subsequent integration and cost reduction initiative. Where was the value creation going to come from?
My sense is that it is time for Mr Tata to think of a successor for himself. Some of his judgement may not have benefited shareholders and customers and his comments indicate that he is tired - for instance - for instance after the Bombay attacks - he indicated that they had received warnings of the attack - but the Taj DID NOTHING about those. And then he says nohting could have prepared them for those attacks - Wrong- they could have been prepared, if they had paid attention to those warnongs which come within 24 12 months after the Bombay train blasts!
Now he admits that the timing of the Jaguar deal may not have been right. I am a fan of Mr Tata, but I fear that age and the years of hardwork have caught up with him. It is the interest of Tata shareholders that Mr Tata should hand over reins to somebody else.
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
Good no cap on exec pay
Monday, May 4, 2009
So how are these stress tests different?
I am asking a fundamental question here - does the manner of identification and measurement of risk need to be changed? Do the VaR calculations need to be done in a different way? Seems to me - not different but in a more detailed way now. So that all kinds of exposures are identified and captured in the formula.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Why the markets are Irrational and Inefficient
And of course the markets know how to react swiftly, because they know how to judge information. Without fanfare or bs. Because, the folks analyzing the information are pure arm chair analysts who have never run a company or made a decision in their lives. and they know what it takes to run a company from having taken up a CFA or attended B School. That's why they can analyze the implications of decisions (or lackof them and make a "call"). What wonderful training for analyzing a company. and making judgement calls.
and dont forget - all this makes the markets efficient. - because frauds dont exist, conmen dont scheme up new ways to dupe, folks like Madoff dont exist, Speculators never drive the price of oil and everybody has market access. Markets can always determine how much liquidity is needed, where the folks at the margin are, whose money is being lost and who is making money - didnt you heare me - the markets take care of all that!
Then why the hell are we in this mess?
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Is there a middle path?
I posit there is no true middle path in reality- because in amiddle path you are just trying to please everybody. You are either center right or center left or generally center off center. But the middle path can be a tactical position - never a strategic one- The strategic position is either offcenter or the extremes. To be in the center means you are likley to be pulled the strongest current eventually and then drowning - unless you have great fortitude and endurance. Stable middle paths exist only in theory. And maybe that's why we keep trying to aim for it.
Monday, March 16, 2009
What were they thinking?
So here's what happened - some really clever product developers at AIG (and at other financial Institutions) developed a bunch of credit derivatives that they didnt know could bring their downfall. These very credit derivatives drove AIG into bankruptcy - none of the other senior executives nor the risk management committee had the technical capability nor the foresight to tackle and prevent this. Despite this management incompetence, the government decided to step in and prop up the company so that millions of ordinary people could be protected and the financial system in the US didnt collapse into the abyss of no return. So what do the AIG executives decide to do? Give themselves "performance" bonuses because otherwise they would "walk away" to other companies! Sounds very dubious indeed!
At the very least they should have thought of the optics of this - company going bankrupt, receives tax payers' money, decides to give performance bonuses to retain key employees, some of whom were probably responsible for this mess. Hmm. Not the kind of behaviour that wins you the fShining Star award.
Here are some other examples "what were they thinking?" recently:
a) The CEOs of the car companies going to Washington in private jets to ask for a bailout
b) The CEO of Ford indicating that he was okay where he was when asked by Congress whether he would take a pay cut to save Ford
c) Citigroup wanting to take possession of a Private jet just after receiving government bailout money
d) The management of Merck supposedly all getting higher than expectation performance bonuses when Merck's performance was reported to have been less than target
e) Merill Lynch staff getting bonuses in millions of dollars just after being saved by Bank of America
Thursday, March 12, 2009
The issue with executive compensation
Now compare that to the life of an an investment banker - he starts with a salary higher than that of a battalion chief. He risks nothing but other people's money. And in the process our society is willing to reward this species really handsomely. Is this the meaning of risk reward relationship?
Compensation programs world over have tended to go in the wrong direction - overcompensate some and undercompensate others. Executive compensation has tended to reward folks handsomely more for taking outsized risks with capital and less for showing consistent good judgement and for being an effective leader. Nowhere has this behaviour been exemplified in the worst way possible than in the financial services sector.
Here are the issues with the world of executive compensation
a) Excessive focus on individual performance
b) Excessive focus on short term value creation
c) Poor board oversight on performance and compensation
d) Establishing risk reward relationships that drive poor decision making
e) Inadequate transparency of performance measurement and compensation
f) Very little focus on taking punitive action for poor decision making
g) Increasing complexity of bonus pool calculations and payouts particularly for frontline roles
h) Irresponsible compensation consultants who instead of providing sound advice that can challenge status quo, only pander to the needs of senior executives
One bank that has managed to avoid a large portion of the subprime crisis and resuling mess has been HSBC - why? Among many reasons that include their strategy, geographic presence and good risk management, their rewards structure supposedly does not reward frontline staff so differently from the support staff that frontline staff start behaving irresponsibly. The differential is kept to a manageable minimum and individual stars, while celebrated are quickly cut to size if they become too big.
I must clarify - I am not against paying senior executives well. They should get paid well - but for what ? In my opinion for making tough decisions that have a positive impact on the company's financial and non financial performance on a multi year basis - not just one year. All of these folks make more money than what most people do in multiple live times - and I dont grudge them that - But I do get annoyed when people get compensated handsomely even when they have destroyed other people's wealth just because "the market demands it!"
I support the cap on executive compensation for banks receiving bailout money - none of the CEOs on that list need any personal assistance with mortgages - they havent foreclosed, but their customers did only because the banks sold them loans they couldnt afford! Shouldnt the CEOs and other officers be punished for this irresponsible behaviour?
Friday, March 6, 2009
Its time to pass the bill
Monday, February 23, 2009
Follow the passion
This is a lesson for all individuals - how many of us get stuck in jobs that we dont really care about or do things to make a living without really feeling that it is our calling! Resul's example is testament to the whole point of following your passion - you will be happy and possibly very successful. While loving your family members, stay away from them for career advice - sometimes they dont let you follow your heart.
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Slumdog Millionaire - Not Best Picture Status
Friday, February 13, 2009
Introducing my friend Bala, the Visionary
After IIMB, he worked in a number of technology related companies - Wipro, Infosys, Mphasis and the likes. Somewhere along the way he got married also. In 2007, in an epiphany, he resigned his job and decided to start a Microfinance company that addressed a major gap in the market - i.e. of loan guarantees. A big problem in the world of microfinance is the issue of the risk lenders assume when lending to very low income borrowers - those on the margin. Some of these may get left because of the lack of credibility i.e. high risk they pose.
Bala saw this problem as an opportunity. In his technology consulting days, he had some experience with the financial services sector and quickly recognized this as a very simple business problem - one of managing risk by getting a third party to provide the guarantees and assuming the risk. This way the ordinary public also gets involved in the world of micro-finance by providing small guarantees.
What is amazing is not the concept, but the sacrifices he has made so far - he gave up a well paying job and has bootstrapped this company for the last 12 months. His enthusiasm and passion also attracted a number of volunteers who have worked with him since the idea days. Now Bala is trying to raise financing for his venture but so far has been struggling to get decent funding in these times. I only hope it is a matter of time, before he finds investors / finances to lead the growth of United Prosperity. Here is a link to his company's website: http://www.unitedprosperity.org/
Visit it and get involved.
Thursday, February 12, 2009
My new hero
I watched his interview with Larry King. And I was almost clapping for the man. His responses to King's questions, were firm, short, crisper than his moustache, and almost always laced with humility. And whenever put on the spot about his role, he invariably gave credit to his entire team and his training.
This was another lesson in leadership for me. Capt Sully was calm, well trained, and as he said, did what he was trained to do. And in doing so, he encouraged others to do the same, with little fanfare. Not once did I hear him even remotely suggest that he considered his actions to be heroic. And his co-pilot, the first officer was just as self effacing as were the rest of the crew. Clearly they see him as a role model.
The world needs more leaders like Capt Sully.
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
A busy start to the year
But hey during this time, I managed to learn a few new things. One - you can pretty much kiss your security deposit goodbye when you move into a rental apartment. Second, in this day and age of warp speed communications, AT&T still needs 8 yes, eight days to transfer my line from one location to another WITHIN the San Francisco Bay Area. It still isnt clear to me why they needed eight days to stop my old phone line and start a new one when no hardware installation was necessary. They need a different kind of stimulus.
I got to see bits of the inauguration - the feeling was fabulous - and kudos to all those who braved the cold to watch the historic event. I felt goosebumps. And a bit sorry for George Bush, as he departed looking forlorn. Wonder how he felt knowing that his approval ratings were low and the assembled crowds were happy to see the last of him as President. Lesson in leadership - you got to have a VERY TOUGH SKIN.
The rest of the inauguration was really nice - watching Obama's daughters, his wife, listening to his speech, - it took me, a bystander, a little while to adjust to seeing for myself, with mine own eyes, a non white President. And when I did, I felt tears of joy on my cheeks.